Back in early February I made a series of political predictions, one of which was for the US mid-term congressional elections. At that time, I was unsure about the Senate but was quite bold in predicting that the Democrats would win the House of Representatives. I now repeat what I wrote about the House. “In the 119th Congress elected on Tuesday 5 November 2024 and first meeting on 3 January 2025, the numbers began as 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats. My prediction for the 120th Congress is that it will begin with 240 Democrats and 195 Republicans.”
Subsequent to my writing those words, there have been developments in the form of competitive gerrymandering in certain states plus court cases pursued unsuccessfully by President Donald Trump. Since those developments were fully expected by me, I stick with my February predictions. In the House there will be 240 Democrats and 195 Republicans over the next two-year term.
While the House of Representatives is elected on the basis of single-member electoral districts, it is always worth remembering the “generic congressional vote” as indicated by opinion polls. All this year the Democrats have led, and the latest statistics are 50.6% for the Democrats and 41.9% for Republicans with “Others” collecting 7.5%. Meanwhile the betting markets say there is a 93% chance the Democrats will win a majority in the House.
The above information suggests to me that predicting the House is easy. By contrast, predicting the Senate is complicated, and begins with the need to understand the system. There are three classes of senators, and they rotate for six-year terms.
The result of the most recent election in November 2024 was 19 Democrats and 14 Republicans, for a total of 33. However, when I say “19 Democrats” I mean 17 Democrats and two independents who caucus with the Democrats. They are Bernie Sanders (Vermont) and Angus King (Maine). Those 33 have terms expiring on 3 January 2031 and they are known as “Class One”.
Those elected in November 2022 are known as “Class Three” and there are 34 of them. Their terms expire on 3 January 2029, and they comprise 19 Republicans and 15 Democrats.
The class critical to any 2026 assessment, therefore, is “Class Two” and there are 33 of them. Their replacements will be elected on 3 November 2026 and take their seats on 3 January 2027. They presently comprise 20 Republicans and 13 Democrats.
The total US Senate, therefore, now has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats.
In predicting the 2026 outcome, I begin by saying that the Democrats will retain their current 13 seats and that will include the controversial Democratic candidate for Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, replacing the current Democrat Gary Peters who is retiring. All incumbent sitting Democratic senators will easily be re-elected.
In addition to retaining those 13 seats I am predicting that the Democratic Party will gain these four states from Republicans. I list them in order of probability of the Democrat winning.
First, there is North Carolina where Republican Senator Thom Tillis is retiring. The Democratic candidate is Roy Cooper, and he was the popular governor of the state from 2017 to 2025. The Republican loser will be Michael Whatley who was the chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party from 2019 to 2024.
Second, Texas has been solidly Republican for forty years, but I confidently predict its new senator will be James Talarico of the Democratic Party. There has been a Republican senator in this seat since John Cornyn first won it for the party in 2002 and was re-elected in 2008, 2014 and 2020. His problem has been the lack of enthusiasm for him of Trump’s MAGA base. Consequently, with Trump’s support Cornyn lost his primary contest this year to Texas Attorney-General Ken Paxton. The effect is easily explained. Paxton will lose a seat that Cornyn would have held for the Republican Party.
Third, Alaska is a traditional Republican state, but I predict that this year’s Senate contest will see the Democratic candidate, Mary Peltola, take the seat from incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan (Republican). Being a small state in population, Alaska has only one member of the House of Representatives compared with 14 for North Carolina and 38 for Texas. Anyway, Peltola held that seat in the House of Representatives from 2022 to 2025 and will now, on my prediction, enjoy a six-year term in the Senate. Sullivan was elected in 2014 and re-elected in 2020.
Fourth, Maine is also likely to fall to the Democratic Party. The current senator is Susan Collins (Republican) who was first elected in 1996 and re-elected in 2002, 2008, 2014 and 2020. In my opinion she has outstayed her welcome and likely will lose to her Democratic opponent Troy Jackson.
If the Democrats won all four of the above states and held on elsewhere, there would be 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans in the new Senate from January next year. If, however, Collins held on in Maine then Republicans could lose the mid-western farm states of Iowa or Kansas where there exist reasons to suppose Republican losses. Anyway, even if it is a case of me making cancelling errors, I still predict four Democratic gains among the 33 “Class Two” senators.
However, it is probably better for the Democrats than that. There is another complication. I wrote above that “Class Three” senators were elected in November 2022 to serve until January 2029 and that the 34 senators in that class consisted of 19 Republicans and 15 Democrats. The complication is that one of those senators was J.D. Vance from Ohio. Upon his taking up the post of Vice President in January 2025 he resigned that Senate seat which was then filled by an appointee who is John Husted (Republican). But Husted must face the voters at the earliest popular election which is known as a “special election”.
The contest for that special election will be between Husted and the Democratic candidate, Sherrod Brown. I think Brown will win. My ground for saying so is that Brown was a senator for Ohio from 2007 until 2025 when he lost his seat to the Republican candidate, Bernie Moreno. Brown is a very good bet to beat Husted and thus fill the remainder of the term expiring on 3 January 2029. That being so, my prediction for Senate numbers from January next year is 52 for the Democrats and 48 for the Republicans.